Welcome back
I guess it was inevitable – the government started selling the long bond again today. First time since 2001. Guess that’s what deficit spending leads to . . .
February 9, 2006· 1 min read
George Bush Sings!
Bet you didn’t know that he had it in him. Enjoy! http://www.thepartyparty.com/ (thanks to Chris for the link)
October 24, 2005· 1 min read
A little perspective
My dad sent me the following link that shows a map of the New Orleans flooding overlayed on a map of Boston (great UI). Being from Boston, this is a particularly relevant scale for me (particularly since I’ve spent a total of only 2 days in New Orleans in my life). Even if your’re not from the Boston area I think you’ll find the perspective helpful in understanding the true extent of what happened last week.
September 8, 2005· 1 min read
Was Hobbes Right?
Louisiana are pretty remarkable. Gunmen targeting medical convoys. Widespread looting. Here’s some aerial photography that shows the water covering neighborhoods. Here’s a link to a photo series from the WashingtonPost (if this link doesn’t work for you there’s a link from the post home page). Its unbelievable to see what’s going on and disheartening to watch some of the behavior that is emerging in what has become somewhat of a lawless area (I’m not talking about people stealing groceries to live on – I’m talking about the people looting from jewelry stores and the like). Reports of the devastation in …
September 1, 2005· 2 min read
Less than Zero
I wrote a post a month ago about the US personal savings rate falling to zero in June – its 2nd lowest level since the great Depression. It’s worth reading the comments to that post, which pointed out the following: 1) people are stupid; 2) don’t get too hot and bothered about just one data point; 3) the savings rate was actually slightly positive – at 0.02% – not actually zero; 4) there’s hidden savings in the US in the form of R&D, education spending and gains in home equity values that, while not exactly putting money into a bank account, is the equivalent of ‘investing for the future’; and 5) higher savings rates don’t necessarily translate into economies growing more quickly (using Europe as an example, although Japan would be another prime data point for this argument). All very good points and well taken (particularly the point on ‘hidden savings’ – I hadn’t thought about that before). However while low savings rates clearly have short term benefits to the economy (in the form of more money going into the economy itself – on a macro level this is a key driver in Keynesian economics) they are probably not sustainable in the long term (certainly not at or near zero). Also, given the current administrations insistence on expensive outlays of capital and preference for tax cuts which are causing us to run quite a deficit, combined with our large current account imbalance, we’re reliant on someone’s savings to fund our economy (and if American’s aren’t saving, then we’re 100% reliant on other nations to fund our debt). Perhaps some economist readers might jump in here with their thoughts. …
September 1, 2005· 2 min read
Zero. Zip. Nada.
The US personal savings rate fell to zero in June – its lowest level since the latest spending binge started (post 9/11) and the 2nd lowest since the Great Depression. You can read the full government report here (be sure to check out some of the tables – very interesting information). Yes, the economy grew at a healthy annualized rate and clearly the Fed is still worried about inflationary pressure (we still have 50-100 basis points left to move in the fed funds rate) . But still – personal savings rate of 0%? We already lag behind the rest of the world in our ability not to spend pretty much all of what we earn (see here for a chart of US savings rates by quarter for the past 5 years) , and this trend shows no sign of improving. …
August 3, 2005· 1 min read
How cool is your ride?
Even though I’m getting older I still like to think of myself as at least a little bit cool (although I’m sure there are many people who would set me straight on that one). As a result I was a bit dismayed this weekend to read an amusing article in the Times that clued me in that – at least in my choice of cars – I was not as cool as I thought I was. In fact, the Land Rover that I drive is pretty close to the “Stodgy” end of the cool meeter and in the same category as Chrysler and (gasp!) Oldsmobile. As the kids would say these days: “Not so groovy!”
July 6, 2005· 1 min read